What will happen to the ruble exchange rate next week and in August?

At the end of the previous week, the ruble experienced a significant drop in value against the US dollar.

The dollar exchange rate increased by 4.3% over the course of the week, reaching 95.69 rubles/$, which is almost 4 rubles higher than the rate at the end of the previous week.

Almost all week, the ruble had been weakening, but on Friday it rose above 96 rubles per dollar.

Sovcombank has noted that, based on statistics from the past 16 years, August is one of the worst months of the year for the ruble, along with January, November, and December.

The Russian ruble has been weakened due to a seasonal decrease in the balance of the current account of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation, which is largely attributed to an increased demand for foreign currency for foreign holidays.

The absence of recent statements from authorities in support of the ruble is a contributing factor to the ruble's current dynamics.

In July, the average price of Russian Urals oil to Brent decreased to its lowest since March 2022, amounting to less than $15. The Ministry of Finance reported that the average price of Urals was $64.4 per barrel.

Expobank believes that the ruble has stabilized above 95 rubles / $, which paves the way for further depreciation. Additionally, with the current rate of volatility, the exchange rate has a good chance of reaching 98 rubles / $ or higher in the near future.

BCS predicts that, due to the delayed reaction of exchange rates to the increase in oil prices since the end of July, the dollar could soon drop to around 90 rubles, which is 7-10% lower than the current rate and more reflective of a fair fundamental picture.

It seems that August will be a period of heightened volatility, yet it is hard to believe that the dollar will reach 100 rubles. According to Russian Standard Bank, the most probable scenario is a range of 90-95 rubles per dollar.

Alfa-Bank predicts that the dollar could reach 100 rubles/$ in August. This is due to the strain on the nation's trade balance and current account.

Tinkoff Investments predicts that the exchange rate could go above 100 rubles/$ in the second half of the year. Ingosstrakh Investments also believes that the ruble could weaken to 100 rubles/$ or more by the end of the year.