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Peter Davis

An writer at FOMOdrive

  • Feb 06, 2024
  • 2 min read

A dividend tsunami of 5 trillion rubles will cover investors

In 2024, Alfa Bank anticipates achieving its highest dividends ever in Russia.

The amount of money paid out in dividends may increase twofold in comparison to the previous year.

On average, the dividend yield is expected to be approximately 10%.

The value of Russian companies' shares remains underestimated.

In 2024, there is a possibility that the Moscow Exchange index will experience a 14% increase.

This year, Alfa Bank is anticipating a historic payout of approximately 5 trillion rubles in dividends. This amount is expected to be twice as much as last year's dividends, which totaled 2.5 trillion rubles.

According to RBC, the rise in payments can be attributed to the devaluation of the ruble, which artificially inflated export profits. Exporters may also distribute record dividends to their shareholders.

According to the bank, Russian company stocks are currently not being given their true worth. The base scenario predicts that by 2024, the Moscow Exchange index could increase by 14% to reach 3,661 points. However, the stock market is expected to have a less impressive performance this year compared to the previous year.

Alfa Bank has created a ranking of the top-performing stocks based on their dividend yield in the previous year. The top five securities on this list are Surgutneftegaz's preferred shares with a dividend yield of 22.7%, followed by LUKOIL at 16.9%, "Magnit" at 14.4%, MTS at 13.0%, and Sberbank at 12.3%.

Based on the bank's projections, the mean dividend return for 2024 is expected to be approximately 10%.

In 2024, the stock market will face significant obstacles, primarily due to inflation and the high yields of 10-year OFZs, which are currently at 12.25%. The first six months of the year are expected to be particularly challenging, as the Bank of Russia is expected to maintain its interest rate at 16%.

Furthermore, the relocation of foreign-registered companies such as Yandex, Ozon, VK, HeadHunter, CIAN, Rusagro, and TCS Group carries the potential risk of an excess supply of their shares in the domestic market.

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