What awaits the ruble in January and when to buy the currency?

In December, the ruble weakened against the dollar, euro, and yuan after having strengthened for two months prior.

By the end of the month, the dollar exchange rate rose by 1% to 90.36 rubles/$, the euro by 2.3% to 99.62 rubles, and the yuan by 1% to 12.61 rubles.

In 2023, the dollar increased by 20.46 rubles (+29.3%), the euro by 25.32 rubles (+34.1%), and the yuan by 2.70 rubles (+27.3%).

Experts interviewed by RBC Investments have stated that the decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings will be a major contributor to the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate in January.

The Bank of Russia declared in December that, with the present oil prices, it would put up for sale 11.8 billion rubles worth of foreign currency on the market daily.

In the first month of 2024, both the dollar and ruble exchange rates will be impacted by two main factors: a seasonal decrease in imports and the dividend factor.

Rosselkhozbank notes that there are enough factors for the ruble to strengthen at the start of 2024, as issuers such as Gazprom Neft, Tatneft, and Rosneft may need to conduct additional currency sales to replenish their ruble liquidity before their registers close at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024.

Finam believes that a decrease in foreign currency earnings of 12-15% compared to the autumn numbers could put strain on the ruble. This is due to the drop in the price of Russian Urals oil to $62 per barrel in December, which is lower than the $78-80 it was in October.

PSB predicts that, considering all the influencing factors, the chances of the ruble weakening in January are likely to be minimized.

The Alfa Capital Management Company anticipates that, in the baseline scenario, the ruble-to-dollar exchange rate will remain close to 90 rubles per dollar.

The Veles Capital Investment Company anticipates that the dollar will reach 90 rubles in January, though they do not discount the possibility of local rate increases during brief periods of heightened volatility.

Rosselkhozbank predicts that the ruble/dollar exchange rate will fluctuate between 87.5 and 92.7 rubles per dollar in January. It is likely that the rate will lean towards the lower end of this range.

Sovcombank predicts that the dollar exchange rate in January will be between 86 and 91 rubles per dollar.

The Arikapital Management Company is anticipating that the ruble will either strengthen in January or stay at its current rate of 90-92 rubles per dollar.

Experts interviewed by RBC predict that the ruble will strengthen in the first quarter of 2024, but may start to weaken after the presidential elections and the expiration of the decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings (valid until April 11, 2024).