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Peter Davis

An writer at FOMOdrive

  • Sep 14, 2023
  • 2 min read

What will happen to the ruble exchange rate in the coming week?

At the end of the past week, the ruble had weakened against the US dollar.

The dollar exchange rate rose 1.76% over the week, bringing it to 97.78 rubles/$, which is 1.69 rubles higher than the rate at the end of the previous week.

For the third consecutive week, the Russian currency dropped, reaching its lowest point against the dollar since mid-August at around 98.60 rubles/$ by the end of the week.

The Russian Standard Bank noted that at the end of the week, the ruble had stabilized due to statements that the Russian budget had been executed with a surplus in August, largely due to increased oil and gas revenues.

Veles Capital predicts that the ruble may reach its August highs by mid-September.

Expobank predicts that the Bank of Russia's meeting on the key rate on Friday, September 15 will have a significant impact on the Russian market. It is likely that the national currency will strengthen and there will be an increased demand for ruble bonds in the corporate sector.

Zenit Bank believes that the weakening of the ruble may slow down as it nears the 100 ruble/$ mark, and that the rhetoric of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation suggests the possibility of raising the key rate at the September meeting. This could potentially make ruble investments more attractive in the second half of the month.

Promsvyazbank anticipates an interesting week ahead for the foreign exchange market, as exporters remain active at the start of the week, allowing the dollar to stay within the range of 97–98 rubles and potentially even dip lower.

The Central Bank of Russia is expected to start significant interventions on September 14, with the potential to strengthen the Russian currency. At the end of the week, the Central Bank will consider raising the key rate, according to BCS.

Freedom Finance Global expects that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation may raise the rate by 100-300 basis points (bp.) following the meeting on September 15. Alfa Bank, however, still maintains its forecast for a 50 bp. increase in the Central Bank rate in September.

Bank St. Petersburg believes that a short-term stabilization of the ruble exchange rate against the dollar at current levels is achievable due to high oil prices and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation's announced interventions. However, a long-term reversal necessitates a shift in the economic environment, which is not yet visible.

Analysts from investment companies and banks surveyed by RIA Novosti expect that the dollar exchange rate in the upcoming week will decrease by 1.36 rubles, bringing it to 96.42 rubles/$.

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