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Peter Davis

An writer at FOMOdrive

  • Sep 04, 2023
  • 2 min read

What awaits the ruble in September and when to buy currency?

At the end of August, the ruble experienced a significant decline against the dollar, euro, and yuan, as is typical for this time of year.

By the end of the month, the dollar exchange rate rose 4.8% to 96.03 rubles per dollar, the euro increased 3.3% to 104.09 rubles, and the yuan rose 2.8% to 13.17 rubles.

In August of last year, the ruble experienced its fifth greatest decline since the 1998 default.

For the past seven months, the Russian currency has been on a downward trend.

The dollar increased by 37.4% against the ruble, the euro by 40.1%, and the yuan by 32.9% during this period.

In mid-August, the dollar exchange rate rose to a level of over 100 rubles, nearing 102, representing a decrease of 11% since the start of the month. This sharp decline of the ruble caused the authorities to raise the key rate by 350 basis points to 12%, and also to informally negotiate with exporters to increase the sale of foreign currency earnings. All of these measures helped to partially stabilize the situation.

The ruble is not expected to experience any major changes in September. The dollar is likely to remain within the range of 94-96 rubles, as the balance of payments is expected to increase due to the rising oil prices during the summer.

It is anticipated that the ruble will only reach new lows by the end of the year, according to Bank St. Petersburg. In the near future, the dollar exchange rate is likely to remain at around 96-98 rubles/$.

The Russian Agricultural Bank believes that, due to the expected gradual rise in export earnings and a decrease in import growth, the exchange rate is likely to remain steady in the range of 92.5-95.9 rubles.

Finam predicts that the dollar exchange rate will be between 91 and 97 rubles until the end of the third quarter. However, it is expected that the dollar will return to around 100 by the end of the year.

Alor Broker predicts that the gradual weakening of the ruble will likely continue in the near future. They anticipate a slowdown to around 100 rubles per US dollar, as exporters will be more likely to sell their foreign currency earnings due to the fear that this psychologically important mark may prompt the monetary authorities to introduce a mandatory sale of foreign exchange.

According to a survey of analysts of investment companies and banks conducted by RIA Novosti, the dollar exchange rate is expected to drop by 80 kopecks to 95.23 rubles in a month.

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