What awaits the ruble in October and when to buy the currency?

The ruble is set to finish September with a slight decrease against the dollar and the yuan, yet an increase against the euro due to the euro's decline on the foreign exchange market.

At the end of the almost completed month, the dollar exchange rate increased by 0.8%, to 96.80 rubles/$, while the yuan rose by 1.1%, to 13.31 rubles. The euro exchange rate, however, decreased by 1.8%, to 102.21 rubles.

For the past eight months, the Russian ruble has been depreciating against the US dollar, despite the government's efforts to prevent the decline. However, the rate of depreciation of the ruble slowed down significantly in September.

Promsvyaz Management Company has predicted that the actions of the authorities will give significant backing to the Russian national currency in October. It is estimated that the dollar exchange rate for the month could be between 93 and 97 rubles.

VTB believes that the current support of the ruble exchange rate is due to the rising oil prices, which have gone from $45 in March to $76 in September, as well as the actions of the Central Bank, such as the implementation of measures to restrict capital outflow.

The Arikapital Management Company believes that October should be a positive month for the ruble, as it is in line with seasonal trends, and is further bolstered by high oil prices and a large amount of tax deductions from exporters, including new taxes on "excess profits" from the ruble's depreciation.

Finam predicts that the ruble will experience renewed pressure as October begins and exporters reduce their foreign currency supply due to the lack of visible support from tax payments at the end of the month.

A factor that may prevent foreign currencies from strengthening is the expectation that the Central Bank will keep its strict monetary policy and the increased chance of another key rate increase at the next meeting.

Sovcombank predicts that the trend of weakening of the Russian currency will continue in October, despite the rise in oil prices. The current supply of foreign currency from exports is insufficient to meet the demand for foreign currency for imports and capital outflows.

On October 1, new "exchange rate" export duties will come into effect, which will be beneficial for the ruble. Additionally, high oil prices will provide support. At the upcoming meeting on October 27, the Central Bank may increase the key rate by 100 basis points, bringing it up to 14%. It is likely that the ruble exchange rate will stay within the range of 94-99 per dollar for the month of October.

BCS predicts that the ruble will start to weaken again in October, however, this will be counteracted by the likely rise in foreign currency earnings from exports, which is a result of the high oil prices.

Alfa Bank believes that the potential risks of the ruble weakening have not been fully eliminated in the medium term, even though the exchange rate is expected to remain stable at 90-100 rubles/$ in the upcoming months.

According to the Ministry of Economic Development's forecast of the country's socio-economic development for the coming years, the peak of the strengthening of the Russian currency is expected to be in June 2024, when the dollar will be worth 87.5 rubles and the euro 97.5 rubles.