What awaits the ruble in November and when to buy the currency?

At the end of October, the ruble experienced a significant appreciation against the dollar, euro, and yuan after a period of eight months of depreciation.

By the end of the month, the dollar exchange rate had dropped by 4.7%, to 93.40 rubles/$, the euro by 4.4%, to 98.84 rubles, and the yuan by 5.9%, to 12.69 rubles.

In October, the Russian currency was bolstered by the implementation of a repatriation system and the requirement to sell foreign currency earnings.

For the next six months, Russian exporters must return at least 80% of their foreign currency earnings to Russian banks, and then sell at least 90% of this amount on the domestic market, starting from October 16.

Yuri Chikhanchin, the head of Rosfinmonitoring, has announced that the department has already started to implement the decree requiring certain exporters to sell their foreign currency earnings. They are currently working on analysis and monitoring tools.

The Bank of Russia's key rate was raised to 15% in October, doubling over the past 4 months. This has had an impact on the growth of the ruble. However, the effects of higher borrowing costs will be felt over a longer period of time. Consumer demand will be affected, leading to a decrease in imports, which will be beneficial for the trade balance and, consequently, the ruble exchange rate in the medium term.

Sovcombank predicts that the ruble's performance until the end of the year will be determined by the amount of foreign currency earnings sold by exporters. It is estimated that the sales in November and December will be between $12–14 billion, which is higher than the $9.2 billion in September and $7.2 billion in August.

From October 1, 2024 until the end of the year, Russia has imposed export duties that are linked to the dollar exchange rate, impacting a variety of goods. Companies are likely to purchase dollars in order to pay the duty, which will result in a strengthening of the ruble.

It is expected that inflation will increase to 7.5-8% by the end of the year, and budget expenditures may also rise, leading to an increase in the ruble money supply. This could put pressure on the ruble in November, as the money supply may be used to purchase imports.

Arikapital Management Company predicts that the ruble will continue to strengthen in November, and that the USD/RUB rate will drop to 90. At this point, it would be wise to consider taking profits.

Sinara investment bank expects the ruble to strengthen to 90 rubles/$ by the end of the year. The PSB Management Company does not anticipate the ruble to drop below 90 rubles per dollar in the near future. Most experts are forecasting the dollar to be in the range of 90-95 rubles/$ in November.