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Peter Davis

An writer at FOMOdrive

  • Nov 30, 2023
  • 2 min read

What awaits the ruble in December and when to buy the currency?

In November, the ruble experienced a strengthening against the dollar, euro, and yuan for the second consecutive month, following eight months of decline.

By the end of the month, the dollar exchange rate had dropped 4.2%, to 89.45 rubles/$, the euro had decreased 1.5%, to 97.40 rubles, and the yuan had gone down 1.6%, to 12.49 rubles.

In November, the ruble saw an active growth following President Putin's October decree requiring Russian exporters to repatriate and sell a portion of their foreign exchange earnings. However, the strengthening of the Russian currency ceased in the last ten days of the month.

The supply of currency on the market increased due to exporters, causing the demand for currency to be exceeded and the ruble to strengthen. Sovcombank predicts that the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings in December will continue to have a positive effect on the ruble exchange rate.

At the upcoming meeting on December 15, the Bank of Russia may raise the key rate by 100 basis points, to 16% per annum. This increase in the cost of loans would likely reduce consumer and investment demand, including demand for imports and foreign currency. The ruble is favored not only by high exports and declining imports, but also by high ruble interest rates, which have already been raised from 13% to 15%.

In December, the ruble is usually unfavorable to the dollar (66% in favor of the dollar). This is due to the fact that state budget expenditures usually increase during this month, leading to a large influx of rubles into the market.

At the end of the year, importers tend to buy more imports for New Year's gifts from Russians, according to Finam. The Russian currency has finished the main stage of its appreciation.

BCS does not exclude the possibility of a moderate depreciation of the ruble in December, which is usually considered the most unfavorable month for the Russian currency. The company forecasts the exchange rate of the US dollar to the ruble to be around 91 rubles at the end of the month.

Sovcombank predicts that the ruble exchange rate could be between 83 and 87 per dollar by the end of December. PSB anticipates the rate to be 86.7 rubles per dollar at that time.

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