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Peter Davis

An writer at FOMOdrive

  • Dec 06, 2023
  • 2 min read

The US dollar soared above 93 rubles for the first time since early November

On Wednesday, the dollar exchange rate surpassed 93 rubles for the first time since November 3.

For the past five days, the Russian currency has been on a downward spiral due to the plummeting of oil prices.

Since the end of November, oil prices have decreased by approximately $10.

The head of Sberbank does not anticipate any significant changes in the value of the ruble.

The Central Bank's survey of analysts revealed an improved forecast for the ruble exchange rate for 2024–2026.

RBC reports that the ruble is feeling the strain due to the conclusion of the November tax period and the usual surge in demand for foreign currency at the end of the year.

The decline in stocks and bonds is likely to result in a flow of rubles into foreign currency, in addition to lower oil prices being a factor.

BCS predicts that foreign currency receipts in December will likely decrease by 10-15% compared to October-November. Therefore, it is unlikely that the ruble exchange rate will strengthen in the upcoming month.

The ruble is being supported by a number of factors, such as the Central Bank's strict monetary policy, which could potentially lead to an increase in the interest rate by the end of the year, as well as the repatriation of foreign currency earnings.

MC Pervaya does not anticipate the dollar to reach 100 rubles in the near future. Finam predicts that the dollar exchange rate will remain steady between 88–94 rubles by the end of the year.

German Gref, the head of Sberbank, stated that he does not perceive much opportunity for the ruble to become stronger, but there are no reasons for it to experience a significant weakening. He also mentioned that the fundamental dollar exchange rate is around 90 rubles/$.

According to a survey conducted by the Central Bank, analysts have revised their forecast for the ruble exchange rate for 2024–2026. The Bank of Russia's December survey revealed that the Russian currency is not expected to experience a significant decline in the future. The average dollar exchange rate is predicted to be 92 rubles in 2024 and 93 rubles in 2025.

From December 7 to January 12, the Ministry of Finance will reduce the purchase of foreign currency by 2.5 times, to a total of 245 billion rubles in equivalent, in accordance with the budget rule.

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