The ruble exchange rate targets 90 per dollar

On Tuesday, the dollar exchange rate dropped below 91 rubles for the first time since July's end.

The American currency gained 1.8% against the Russian currency over the first two days of the week.

Oil prices are recovering and exporters are selling more foreign currency, causing the ruble to strengthen.

On Tuesday, the dollar exchange rate dropped to 90.6 rubles/$, resulting in a 1.7 ruble (1.8%) loss over the first two days of the week. This marks the first time the US currency has traded below the 91 ruble mark since July 28, 2023.

After weak inflation data in the United States, the dollar has been retreating on world markets. Traders are now almost certain that the Federal Reserve has finished the current tightening cycle and anticipate that the US central bank will reduce rates at least four times in 2024.

The Russian Standard Bank notes that the requirement for exporters to return their foreign currency earnings to Russia is providing support for the ruble, despite high energy prices.

Alor Broker believes that the decreasing growth of the ruble is due to a decrease in demand for currency from importers, which was caused by an increase in the key rate of the Central Bank.

Freedom Finance Global expects that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation's key rate may be raised by an additional 100 - 200 bp in December.

PSB has reported that the dollar exchange rate is heading towards 90 rubles/$, with the possibility of going even lower as November 28th (the date of tax payments) approaches. If there are no unexpected market events, the sale of foreign currency earnings should provide the market with enough supply to cause the ruble to strengthen.

Rosbank believes that the ruble/dollar pair will be tested at the 90 ruble/$ mark before the end of the year. However, BCS does not anticipate any major appreciation of the ruble due to the equilibrium between the demand and supply of foreign currency.

IC Veles Capital believes that the November tax period will help stabilize the ruble exchange rate within the range of 90-91 rubles/$.