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Peter Davis

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  • Sep 23, 2023
  • 2 min read

Reshetnikov gave a forecast for the ruble exchange rate at the end of 2023 and 2024-2026

The MED's head anticipates an increase in the value of the ruble against foreign currencies.

The draft state budget for 2024–2026 was approved by the government.

In 2024, the Ministry of Finance will revert back to the prior budget regulation.

At a government meeting on Friday, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov presented a forecast of the country’s socio-economic development for 2024-2026, according to RBC. He predicted that the ruble to dollar exchange rate will strengthen by the end of this year, with the American currency costing 94 rubles.

Reshetnikov predicted that a new equilibrium will be formed at the level of 90-92 rubles per dollar between 2024 and 2026, taking into account changes in the structure of payments and the level of capital outflow.

The Ministry of Economic Development previously predicted that the average annual dollar exchange rate would be 85.2 rubles per dollar in 2023 and 90.1 rubles per dollar in 2024.

The Ministry of Economic Development has predicted that the Russian economy will experience a 2.8% growth in 2023 and a 2.3% growth in 2024. Additionally, they anticipate a rise in inflation this year, followed by a decrease to 4.5% by the end of 2024.

At the government meeting, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov presented the draft federal budget for 2024–2026 in his report.

On Friday, Kommersant reported that the government had approved a comprehensive budget package, which included a draft federal budget for 2024–2026 and a projection of socio-economic development for the same period.

The budget for next year has been drawn up with a deficit of 0.9% of GDP, which is considered acceptable by the authorities. The income and expenses have increased significantly compared to the previous forecast, with revenues estimated at 35 trillion rubles and expenses at 36.6 trillion rubles. It is expected that non-oil and gas revenues in 2024 will be twice as high as oil and gas revenues.

The Ministry of Finance announced in 2024 that they would be reverting back to the previous budget rule, which included a “cut-off price” of $60 per barrel of oil, as opposed to the previous $44.2. However, the macro forecast for 2024 predicts that the average price of Brent oil will be $85.

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