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Peter Davis

An writer at FOMOdrive

  • Aug 28, 2023
  • 2 min read

Raiffeisenbank gave a forecast of the ruble exchange rate for the coming months

The ruble had its best week in the past 13 months.

At the end of the week, the dollar exchange rate had dropped by almost 6%, settling at less than 94 rubles per dollar.

It is anticipated by Raiffeisenbank that the Russian ruble will become stronger over the coming months.

According to the BCS, the dollar is expected to close out the year at around 93 rubles per dollar.

Solid Broker predicts that the dollar exchange rate will initially drop to 85 rubles, and then increase above 100 rubles.

Raiffeisenbank anticipates that the Central Bank's rate hike will have a lasting influence on the exchange rate, due to the decrease in demand for imports (considering the negative effect of the devaluation that has already occurred on the availability of imported goods).

The bank predicts that, due to a correction in imports and an expected improvement in oil exports, the ruble could strengthen to 85 rubles per US dollar in the upcoming months.

BCS predicts that the ruble could strengthen to 93 rubles per US dollar by the end of the year. However, fundamental factors do not suggest a major improvement in the ruble's position; exports will remain under pressure and the risks associated with export volumes may even rise.

The situation may be stabilized by the increase in oil prices during the last three months of the year.

Solid Broker highly commends the authorities' decision to not set standards for the sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters, as well as not to impose any limitations on the movement of capital, deeming it "the best choice for the present circumstances."

It is possible that the ruble will gradually strengthen to 85-90 rubles per dollar, due to certain measures. However, in the long run, the devaluation of the ruble is likely to persist above 100 rubles per dollar. In this case, the authorities will have to take more drastic steps to stabilize the currency, such as the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings.

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