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Peter Davis

An writer at FOMOdrive

  • Aug 28, 2023
  • 2 min read

Raiffeisenbank gave a forecast for the ruble exchange rate at the end of the year

The ruble is steadily declining and is now nearing the psychological benchmark of 100 per US dollar.

Raiffeisenbank predicts that the ruble exchange rate could become stronger in the upcoming quarters.

"Saint Petersburg" Bank believes that the ruble has the potential to strengthen in the medium term.

Sinara Investment Bank predicts that the ruble will become stronger and reach 90 rubles per US dollar in the third quarter.

On Monday, the ruble hit a new low since the spring of 2022, with the dollar exchange rate increasing by two rubles and reaching 99.40 rubles per $.

Raiffeisenbank believes that the recovery of exports and the suspension of foreign exchange interventions could lead to the ruble strengthening in the upcoming quarters.

According to conservative estimates, the suspension of foreign currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance will cause a decrease in demand for foreign currency of $4-6 billion over a 4-month period starting in September. At the same time, the regulator will continue to conduct the previously announced sales of yuan related to the mirroring of NWF spending for the first half of 2023.

Raiffeisen has adjusted its outlook for the exchange rate by the end of the year, expecting a reasonable mid-term range of 85-95 rubles/$. However, fluctuations from this range are likely, particularly in August when the ruble could temporarily exceed 100 rubles/$.

According to the bank "Saint Petersburg", the ruble has the potential to become stronger in the medium term due to high oil prices.

It is anticipated that the ruble will strengthen to 90 rubles/$ in the third quarter by Sinara Investment Bank, due to an increase in foreign exchange supply from exporters.

It is predicted that Brent oil may reach $100 per barrel in the second half of the year, and the price of Russian Urals will increase as the gap between it and Brent oil decreases. This will result in an increase of foreign exchange earnings for exporters, which will cause the ruble to become stronger, according to the bank.

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