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Peter Davis

An writer at FOMOdrive

  • Nov 22, 2023
  • 2 min read

Oreshkin told what to expect from the ruble exchange rate

On Tuesday, the dollar exchange rate fell below 88 rubles/$ for the first time since the end of June.

For the past seven weeks, the ruble has been gaining strength as a result of increased foreign currency sales and the Bank of Russia's strict monetary policy.

The dollar has dropped by more than 14 rubles from its peak during this period.

The ruble rose to its highest level in almost five months due to increased purchases of foreign currency by exporters. This was further bolstered by the Bank of Russia's swift increase of the key rate from 7.5% in July to 15% currently.

Russian Standard Bank notes that the ruble is largely determined by the balance of payments and the increase in exports in terms of price indicators, which is supported by the sale of foreign currency by exporters due to increased export income.

The Bank of St. Petersburg has noted that, in addition to currency control measures, weakening demand for currency is also supporting the ruble. This is evidenced by the latest data showing a decrease in imports to Russia.

Promsvyazbank anticipates that exporters will keep a steady supply of foreign currency, enough to bring the dollar down to a range of 83-85 rubles, as tax payments approach (November 28). This is in a situation where demand for currency from importers is limited due to high rates.

ITI Capital predicts that the dollar may fall to 85 rubles in the near future, however, it is expected to return to the range of 90-95 rubles at the start of next year. This is likely to be influenced by sanctions and geopolitical factors.

In the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation's basic budget forecast, the average dollar/ruble exchange rate for 2024 is estimated to be 90.1.

Barclays is forecasting that the dollar exchange rate will stay close to 90 rubles for the current quarter and the following two.

Maxim Oreshkin, a presidential aide, stated that the balance of payments has stabilized, but the future of the ruble will be determined by the amount of capital outflow, external debt repayment, and the buying back of foreign assets.

Oreshkin stated that further strengthening of the ruble cannot be ruled out, however, he cautioned against expecting any drastic changes in the ruble exchange rate from its current equilibrium values.

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