Investment Bank Sinara gave a forecast of the ruble exchange rate for the third quarter
The dollar was unable to breach the 94 RUB/USD mark, and subsequently dropped to around 90 rubles.
The bank "Saint Petersburg" believes that the exchange rate of the ruble has a chance of staying below 90 rubles per US dollar.
Freedom Finance Global predicts that the ruble could strengthen to 89 RUB/USD and 98 RUB/EUR in July.
According to Alfa Capital, there is currently no significant need to increase the key rate of the Central Bank.
In June, Russia experienced a negative balance of payments for the first time since August of last year (2020).
The Bank of Russia attributed the ruble's weakening in June to a decrease in foreign exchange sales by exporters and the purchase of foreign currency by individual legal entities in response to the conversion of foreign currency loans into rubles. These factors have now had a lessened negative impact. According to the bank "Saint Petersburg", the ruble exchange rate still has the potential to drop below 90 rubles per US dollar.
As world oil prices rise to around $80 per barrel and the discount of Urals oil to Brent oil decreases, the Russian Federation's budget revenues will also increase. This could lead to the dollar being corrected to 89 RUB/USD in July, according to Freedom Finance Global.
According to the Central Bank's observations, the demand for foreign currency increased in June due to a higher concentration of major players. The conversion of loans in banks' portfolios had a more significant impact. Balancing the open foreign exchange positions of banks can also have a greater effect on the ruble exchange rate than the imbalance of exports and imports.
Sinara investment bank predicts that the ruble exchange rate will return to 85 rubles / $ in the third quarter, which is in line with the Bank of Russia's explanation of the short-term nature of the factors influencing the national currency.
Alfa Capital does not believe that there is a significant requirement to raise the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, even though the probability of this has increased. Furthermore, any increase is not expected to be sustained for a long period of time.
The Bank of Russia reported on Tuesday that the current account surplus in the balance of payments for January-June 2023 was $20.2 billion. However, June saw a negative balance of -$1.4 billion, the first time since August 2020 that the current account balance was in the red.
The ruble's balance of payments is not in a favorable position. The primary cause of the current account deficit is a decrease in exports and a rise in imports. Additionally, the seasonal factor has an effect - Russian companies have declared dividends, and a large portion of these payments are intended for non-residents.
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