Alfa-Bank gave a forecast for the ruble exchange rate at the end of 2024

At the end of the year, Alfa-Bank anticipates a decline in the value of the ruble.

The current account surplus decline is putting pressure on the exchange rate.

Furthermore, a majority of 80% of the excess currently originates from commerce with only two nations.

However, Sberbank remains positive and anticipates no major alterations in comparison to the present exchange rate.

According to Alfa-Bank's Investment Strategy for February 2024, the recent decree mandating the sale of export proceeds has resulted in a significant increase in sales for the top exporters. In the fourth quarter, their sales rose from $7.8 billion to $13.7 billion, compared to the third quarter of 2023. However, the implementation of new sanctions could potentially alter this trend.

The current account surplus decline is causing pressure on the exchange rate. Additionally, 40% of Russian businesses are prioritizing the search for new sales markets, while finding suppliers has become less important.

The current account surplus is mainly generated by trade with only three countries: China, India, and Turkey, resulting in the emergence of new vulnerabilities. In November of last year, these two countries accounted for 80% of the surpluses.

According to Alfa-Bank, the dollar's exchange rate is expected to rise to 100 rubles by the end of 2024. This is an improvement from their previous prediction last autumn, where Alfa-Bank's chief economist Natalia Orlova anticipated the Russian currency to drop to 100-110 rubles per dollar. The forecast was based on the elimination of compulsory repatriation and the ability to sell foreign currency earnings.

However, Sberbank remains positive about the ruble and maintains its prediction of around 90 rubles per dollar by the end of the year.

The financial institution states that the compulsory exchange of foreign currency profits by individual exporters may be prolonged until the conclusion of the year, and potentially even longer. This proposal was supported by the administration and economic advisor to the president, Maxim Oreshkin.

This action aims to reduce the instability of the ruble and offset the adverse impact on the exchange rate caused by acquiring assets from foreign entities.