Bitcoin: Are Crypto Whales on CME Going Against the Tide or Knowing Something?

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported, for the week ending last Tuesday, that the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports showed.

Non-commercial large speculators significantly increased their net position to sell Bitcoin contracts, rising from 0.87 thousand contracts to 1.75 thousand. This sharp increase follows a 3-week period of reduction, and the net position is now very close to the levels seen at the end of October.

Operator hedgers increased their net position to buy Bitcoin contracts by 0.35 thousand contracts, bringing the total to 0.79 thousand after a 3-week reduction.

After two weeks of contraction, small speculators (NONREPORTABLE POSITIONS) increased their net position to buy Bitcoin contracts by 0.52 thousand contracts, bringing the total to 0.95 thousand. This is the highest net position since July 18.

The open interest rose by 1,090 contracts, bringing the total to 23,020.

The ratio of the number of contracts to sell to the number of contracts to buy for large speculators increased by 0.04 over the week, bringing the bearish index to 1.09.

Data from the Bitcoin Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that bearish sentiment among large speculators has risen sharply. Over the past week, large funds have been actively selling and buying, resulting in a significant increase in the net position for the decline of BTC. This has brought the net position close to the levels seen at the end of October, which are the highest levels seen in the past two years. In just one week, large speculators have reversed the previous three-week decrease in the net position, doubling it. If this trend continues, it could lead to a decrease in the value of the cryptocurrency.

Longer-term hedgers increased their net position on the decrease of Bitcoin (BTC).

The net position of small speculators on the rise of BTC has significantly increased, pushing the cryptocurrency to new highs in more than 4 months. Although bullish sentiment has been growing among smaller traders, this group typically does not have a major influence on the market.

BTC

COT reporting data is essential for medium to long term trading. Generally, large speculators, NON-COMMERCIAL (banks, investment funds) tend to follow the trend (blue line). On the other hand, small speculators, NONREPORTABLE POSITIONS, usually do not have much of an effect on the market (red line). Hedgers, COMMERCIAL (operators, large companies) usually trade in opposition to the trend (black line). The net position is the difference between the number of buy and sell contracts. Open interest is the total of all open positions in the market.