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Peter Davis

An writer at FOMOdrive

  • Jan 06, 2024
  • 3 min read

Bitcoin: Crypto whales on CME have been waiting for the BTC collapse for a month

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported, for the week ending last Tuesday, that the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports showed.

For the second consecutive week, large speculators (NON-COMMERCIAL) have decreased their net position to sell Bitcoin contracts, bringing it down to 2.22 thousand contracts. This is a decrease of 0.08 thousand contracts from the highest levels seen since early November 2021.

Hedgers (COMMERCIAL) have been increasing their net position to buy Bitcoin contracts for 4 weeks in a row, bringing it up to 1.23 thousand contracts - a 0.14 thousand contract increase. This is the highest net position in the history of CME futures trading since December 2017, and is approaching the levels seen in early December.

After a 3-week buildup, small speculators (NONREPORTABLE POSITIONS) decreased their net position to purchase Bitcoin contracts from 0.22 thousand contracts to 0.99 thousand. This marks the beginning of a decline from the maximum levels seen since November 9, 2021.

The open interest rose by 1.05 thousand contracts, bringing the total to 23.58 thousand.

The ratio of the number of contracts to sell to the number of contracts to buy for large speculators decreased by 0.02 over the week, bringing the bearish index to 1.12.

The data from the Bitcoin Commitment of Traders (COT) report has revealed a slight increase in bullish sentiment among large speculators. Large funds have been steadily reducing their net position on the decline of BTC, which has now dropped to its lowest level in more than two years. This trend could potentially contribute to the growth of cryptocurrency, however, the net position has remained relatively unchanged over the past four weeks, suggesting some uncertainty in the market.

Hedgers with a longer-term outlook experienced a rise in bearish sentiment, causing them to increase their net bearish position on BTC. This pushed the net position close to its all-time high. Over the course of the following four weeks, the net position fluctuated within a sideways range.

Small investors have started to reduce their large net position in Bitcoin from its highest level in over two years. This time, the sentiment of small traders is in line with the sentiment of hedgers.


COT reporting data is essential for medium to long term trading. Large speculators, NON-COMMERCIAL (banks, investment funds) usually follow the trend (blue line). Small speculators, NONREPORTABLE POSITIONS, generally do not have much impact on the market (red line). Hedgers, COMMERCIAL (operators, large companies) usually go against the trend (black line). The net position is the difference between the number of buy and sell contracts. Open interest is the total of all open positions in the market.

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