What will happen to the ruble exchange rate next week?

At the end of the week, the ruble weakened against the US dollar. The dollar exchange rate increased by 1.4%, bringing it to 82.63 rubles per dollar, which is 1.13 rubles higher than the previous week's closing rate.

The Russian currency has been steadily declining, with the dollar exchange rate reaching its highest point since April of last year on Friday, briefly surpassing 83 rubles.

The demand for recovered imports cannot be comfortably met by the influx of foreign exchange earnings into the country. To further add to this pressure, increased budget spending and sharp geopolitics have been put on the national currency, the BCS notes.

As the summer holiday season begins, the ruble may be weakened due to Russians buying more foreign currency for travel. However, by the end of the month, the ruble may be bolstered by the sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters, according to Russian Standard Bank.

Zenith Bank believes that the ruble may weaken to lows of 83.5 rubles per US dollar due to the gradual loss of ground against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions and the low activity of the domestic foreign exchange market, which could result in short-term capital outflows.

The start of the month has seen minimal activity from exporters in the market, as they keep their export earnings abroad. However, demand from importers and the population remains stable. There are no factors that could help to strengthen the ruble. Promsvyazbank predicts that the dollar will continue to rise, reaching a target of 85 rubles.

BCS predicts that if the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged (which has a 70% chance of happening), the dollar will drop from its current high, allowing commodity prices and currencies of developing countries to strengthen. This meeting will be the most important event of the upcoming week.

Sinara bank believes that the ruble could strengthen to 75 rubles/$ in the second half of the year, due to the growth of Brent to $100/bbl. The current weakening of the ruble is attributed to the low activity of exporters in the market, as well as tax and dividend payments from ruble over-the-counter accounts. Additionally, the buyout of non-resident companies is also putting pressure on the Russian currency.

Rosbank has reported that the dollar/ruble pair benchmark at the end of the third quarter is 75 rubles/$, and it is expected to decrease to 74 rubles/$ by the end of the year.