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Peter Davis

An writer at FOMOdrive

  • Jun 19, 2023
  • 2 min read

What will happen to the ruble exchange rate in the near future?

Last week, the ruble experienced its biggest strengthening against the US dollar since mid-January. The dollar exchange rate dropped by 3.6%, closing at 77.38 rubles/$, which is 2.87 rubles lower than the previous week's close.

It is likely that the significant appreciation of the Russian currency was a result of exporters selling their foreign exchange earnings in order to pay out dividends.

Several factors are contributing to the current strengthening of the ruble: companies are exchanging their foreign exchange earnings for dividend payments, and the national currency is being bolstered by a decrease in the discount rate for Russian Standard Bank notes and the Russian brand of oil.

In May, the Ministry of Finance sold 2 billion rubles worth of yuan daily, which had a positive effect on the ruble. Additionally, the dollar became cheaper in foreign markets, according to Promsvyazbank.

Solid Broker predicts that the ruble will be supported in June-July 2023 due to the influx of liquidity from the dividends paid out by several Russian companies.

Expobank believes that the Russian currency has the potential to reach 76.5 rubles / $ or even lower by the end of the month.

Experts at the bank "Saint-Petersburg" believe that the ruble may strengthen to 75 rubles/$ due to the growth of the trade surplus of the Russian Federation.

Loko-Invest predicts that the ruble will be in the range of 74-76 rubles/$ for the next 3-6 months.

Tinkoff Investments predicts that the ruble exchange rate will be 77 rubles per dollar by the end of the second quarter.

The BCS predicts that the ruble may be negatively impacted by an increase in demand for foreign currency for imports after the long May holidays. This is despite the fact that the geopolitical discount for oil sold by Russia has been gradually decreasing, the situation with the state budget balance has been improving, and importers' activity has been cooling locally.

Zenit bank believes that the outlook for the ruble is not good due to low oil prices and the budget's failure to meet its oil and gas revenue targets. Although the dividend factor may provide some temporary respite, the Russian currency is unlikely to remain below 78-80 rubles in the medium term.

Raiffeisenbank anticipates that sales of foreign currency within the budget rule may be replaced by purchases in the upcoming months.

According to Freedom Finance Global, it is highly likely that the ruble will return to the range of 80-81 rubles per US dollar in May of this year.

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