US dollar: speculators renewed the 10-month peak of the net position

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported, for the week ending last Tuesday, that the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports showed.

Non-commercial large speculators have increased their net position to purchase contracts on the dollar index for the sixth consecutive week, bringing the total to 19.5 thousand contracts - the highest since December 13 of last year. This week alone, the net position rose by 0.7 thousand contracts.

Hedgers (COMMERCIAL) increased their net position to sell contracts on the dollar index by 0.5 thousand contracts to 20.7 thousand, marking the sixth consecutive week of increases. This is the highest net position since December 13 of last year.

The open interest decreased by 1,100 contracts, bringing the total to 41,300.

The ratio of the number of contracts to buy to the number of contracts to sell for the bullish index of large speculators rose by 0.37 to 3.41 over the course of the week.

Data from the COT dollar index (USDX) indicates a growing bullish sentiment for the US dollar. For almost a month and a half, traders have been increasing their net position on dollar growth. At the same time, the net position of hedgers has reached its highest level in the past 10 months, and the net position of large speculators has also seen an increase. If this trend continues, it could lead to further appreciation of the US dollar.

Large speculators were simultaneously decreasing their bets on the dollar's appreciation, and some of them did not exclude the possibility of a USD decline.

COT reporting data is essential for medium to long term trading. Generally, large speculators, NON-COMMERCIAL (banks, investment funds) tend to follow the trend (blue line). On the other hand, small speculators, NONREPORTABLE POSITIONS, usually do not have much impact on the market (red line). Hedgers, COMMERCIAL (operators, large companies) usually trade against the trend (black line). The net position is the difference between the number of buy and sell contracts. Open interest is the total of all open positions in the market.