US dollar: speculators have broken through the “ceiling” of the current year

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported, for the week ending last Tuesday, that the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports showed.

Non-commercial large speculators have been increasing their net position to buy contracts on the dollar index for five consecutive weeks, with the most recent increase of 2.1 thousand contracts bringing the total to 18.8 thousand. This net position is now higher than it was in January and is the highest it has been since December 13 of last year.

Hedgers (COMMERCIAL) raised their net position to sell contracts on the dollar index by 1.5 thousand contracts to 20.2 thousand, marking the fifth consecutive week of increases. This is the highest net position since January 3.

The open interest decreased from 42.33 thousand contracts to 42.3 thousand contracts, a decrease of 0.03 thousand.

The ratio of the number of contracts to buy to the number of contracts to sell for the bullish index of large speculators rose by 0.34 to 3.04 over the course of the week.

Data from the COT dollar index (USDX) indicates a growing bullish sentiment for the US dollar. Over the past month, traders have been increasing their net position on the dollar, with the net position of large speculators reaching its highest level in almost 10 months. Last week, large speculators increased their purchases by 5%, while also reducing their sales. If this trend continues, it could lead to further appreciation of the US dollar.

COT reporting data is essential for medium to long term trading. Large speculators, NON-COMMERCIAL (banks, investment funds) usually trade in line with the trend (blue line). Small speculators, NONREPORTABLE POSITIONS, generally do not have a major impact on the market (red line). Hedgers, COMMERCIAL (operators, large companies) usually trade against the trend (black line). The net position is the difference between the number of buy and sell contracts. Open interest is the total of all open positions in the market.