US dollar: speculators broke through 2-month consolidation of net position

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported, for the week ending last Tuesday, that the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports showed.

Non-commercial large speculators decreased their net position to purchase contracts on the dollar index by 2.3 thousand contracts, bringing it down to 17.6 thousand. This decrease follows a weekly increase, and marks the second time in the last three weeks that the net position has been reduced. The net position has resumed its decline from levels close to the highest since December 13 of last year, and is now the lowest it has been since September 26.

Hedgers (COMMERCIAL) decreased their net position to sell contracts on the dollar index by 1.5 thousand contracts, bringing the total to 18 thousand. Additionally, hedger operators have decreased their net position to sell contracts in two of the last three weeks.

The open interest rose by 0.9 thousand contracts, bringing the total to 41.3 thousand.

The ratio of the number of contracts to buy to the number of contracts to sell for the bullish index of large speculators decreased by 0.74 over the week, bringing it to 2.68.

Data from the COT dollar index (USDX) indicates a significant rise in bearish sentiment towards the US dollar. After a week-long hiatus, traders resumed their net position on dollar growth, resulting in the lowest net position in almost three months. Large speculators increased their sales by 27% over the week, which could lead to a further decrease in the value of the US dollar if this trend continues.

COT reporting data is essential for medium to long term trading. Large speculators, NON-COMMERCIAL (banks, investment funds) usually follow the trend (blue line). Small speculators, NONREPORTABLE POSITIONS, generally do not have a major impact on the market (red line). Hedgers, COMMERCIAL (operators, large companies) usually go against the trend (black line). The net position is the difference between the number of buy and sell contracts. Open interest is the total of all open positions in the market.