Oil: OPEC+ scared the bears

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) COT (Commitments of Traders) reports for the week ending on Tuesday last week showed:

Non-commercial large speculators increased their net buying position on oil contracts by 32.7 thousand contracts, bringing the total to 206.1 thousand. This marks the third consecutive week of increased net buying, and the position has now reached its highest level since May 9th, after having been at its lowest since 2013.

Hedgers (COMMERCIAL) have been increasing their net sell position on oil contracts for the past three weeks, with the latest increase being 36.8 thousand contracts, bringing the total to 233.5 thousand.

The number of open contracts decreased by 28 thousand, bringing the total to 1.768 million.

The ratio of the number of buy contracts to the number of sell contracts for the bullish index of large speculators increased by 0.30 over the week, bringing it up to 2.35.

The COT oil data has shown a strong bullish sentiment in the past two weeks, with traders increasing their net position on rising prices from multi-year lows to the highest level in two months. Large funds have increased their purchases by 6% and reduced their sales, which could lead to further growth in oil prices if this trend continues.

WTI

COT report data is essential for medium and long-term trading, and is mainly used by large speculators, NON-COMMERCIAL (banks, investment funds). These traders usually follow the trend (blue line). Small speculators, NONREPORTABLE POSITIONS, however, have little effect on the market (red line). Hedgers, COMMERCIAL (operators, large companies) usually go against the trend (black line). The net position is the difference between the number of buy and sell contracts, while open interest is the total of all open positions in the market.